Global Imbalances and the Paradox of Thrift

Global imbalances refer to current account surpluses and deficits. This is a form of international intertemporal trade, and the neoclassical approach suggests that there are gains from trade, and hence there may be no problem created by global imbalances. This paper presents qualifications to this argument. A crucial concept is the "return journey", namely the need for borrowers to pay interest (or dividends) and eventually to be able to repay. Thus savings must lead to investment, which provides the future resources to enable the return journey. If borrowing is used to finance current consumption, wars, or unwise ("unfruitful") investment, such as excessive housing construction, the result will be a crisis. In this way the high net savings of some countries actually led to the recent crisis. This is a new version of Keynes’ “paradox of thrift” The central issue on which this paper focuses is the failure of high net savings by the “savings glut” countries to lead to fruitful investment in other countries, both in the United States and in developing countries. Hence a crisis was caused by the lack of provision for the return journey.Global imbalances, paradox of thrift, financial crisis, instability of capital flows, world savings glut, quantitative easing

Strategic trade policy : how new? how sensible?

This paper reviews some recent developments in the theory of trade policy that have to do with imperfect competition, strategic interactions as a result of oligopoly, and economies of scale. All these developments have been described as the"new international economics."In the view of some they represent major breakthroughs. One purpose of this paper is to examine how new some of this is and how it relates to the orthodox theory. The paper will focus on one major aspect of these developments, namely"Brander-Spencer profit sharing"and its policy implications. The conclusion is that it relates closely to the existing framework of the orthodox theory of trade policy.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Trade Policy,General Technology

¿Importa la cuenta corriente? El punto de vista tradicional y el moderno

En este artículo compararé el “punto de vista tradicional” y el “punto de vista moderno” sobre la cuenta corriente. Mi propia perspectiva va de acuerdo con el punto de vista moderno, pero dedicaré gran parte de este artículo a explorar posibles salvedades al mismo. Puesto que ambos enfoques son ya bien conocidos, la contribución de este artículo consiste en la búsqueda de estas salvedades. El punto de vista tradicional mantiene que la cuenta corriente es desde luego importante y que, en general, los así llamados desequilibrios en la cuenta corriente son indeseables y requieren medidas, en especial si es improbable que sean “sostenibles”. El punto de vista moderno considera que la cuenta corriente no tiene importancia alguna para la elaboración de la política económica, aunque varios de los elementos que la determinan ciertamente son relevantes para tal propósito.

Trade policy and exchange rate issues in the former Soviet Union

The author reviews possible trade and exchange rate policies of the former Soviet Union. Alternative exchange rate regimes, including a monetary union are considered. For Russia, a fixed but adjustable regime is most realistic. Frequent adjustment may be desirable, to prevent the use of trade restrictions to achieve balance of payments objectives. The author examines the need for transitional tariffs, including the argument for a temporary uniform tariff that is higher than the long-run revenue tariff. The temporary uniform tariff is designed to prevent temporary overshooting of the exchange rate. The case for a free trade area is strong because the republics of the former Soviet Union are so highly specialized, but there will be problems if price controls remain and differ among the republics. There could be a free trade area even if there is no monetary union. The author concludes that one approach to trade policy is to have no trade policy - to have completely free trade with convertibility for current account transactions. Some tariffs and export taxes may be justified, at least as second-best policies. If so, the author stresses that four principles be observed: 1) barriers to existing trade between the republics should not be set up; 2) all quantitative control measures should be avoided; 3) tariff and export tax structures should be very simple; and 4) trade policy should be transparent.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Economic Stabilization,Fiscal&Monetary Policy

Investigation of hospital discharge cases and SARS-CoV-2 introduction into Lothian care homes

Background The first epidemic wave of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Scotland resulted in high case numbers and mortality in care homes. In Lothian, over one-third of care homes reported an outbreak, while there was limited testing of hospital patients discharged to care homes. Aim To investigate patients discharged from hospitals as a source of SARS-CoV-2 introduction into care homes during the first epidemic wave. Methods A clinical review was performed for all patients discharges from hospitals to care homes from 1st March 2020 to 31st May 2020. Episodes were ruled out based on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) test history, clinical assessment at discharge, whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data and an infectious period of 14 days. Clinical samples were processed for WGS, and consensus genomes generated were used for analysis using Cluster Investigation and Virus Epidemiological Tool software. Patient timelines were obtained using electronic hospital records. Findings In total, 787 patients discharged from hospitals to care homes were identified. Of these, 776 (99%) were ruled out for subsequent introduction of SARS-CoV-2 into care homes. However, for 10 episodes, the results were inconclusive as there was low genomic diversity in consensus genomes or no sequencing data were available. Only one discharge episode had a genomic, time and location link to positive cases during hospital admission, leading to 10 positive cases in their care home. Conclusion The majority of patients discharged from hospitals were ruled out for introduction of SARS-CoV-2 into care homes, highlighting the importance of screening all new admissions when faced with a novel emerging virus and no available vaccine